The Threshold of Fear: Why 2026 Marks the End of the Islamic Republic

The economic "shadow fleet" and the smuggling networks that the regime used to bypass sanctions are being dismantled by international enforcement. As the cash flow to the IRGC's top brass dries up, their ability to pay the "loyalty bonuses" to their subordinates is diminishing. A regime that buys loyalty finds itself bankrupt when the currency collapses.