Policy-making, which forms the practical substance of politics, is an inherently complex exercise in navigating uncertainty and unforeseen consequences. Because political decisions involve billions of interacting variables—human behavior, global economics, weather patterns, technological change—no predictive model can offer a guaranteed "true" outcome. When drafting healthcare reform, for example, economists can only offer competing models with varying assumptions about human responses. Choosing one policy over another is not an affirmation of its absolute truth, but a subjective judgment call about which set of predicted risks and benefits is more tolerable or desirable, revealing a preference for a certain future rather than adherence to an indisputable present reality.
