The Commander of the Quds Force at the Diplomacy and Resistance Conference

Nuclear proliferation remains the most explosive variable in this equation, as the "diplomatic window" for a renewed agreement appears to have slammed shut. Following the June strikes and the subsequent reinstatement of United Nations sanctions in September 2025, intelligence reports suggest that Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment toward the 90% weapons-grade threshold. For Israel, an Iranian nuclear breakout is an existential threat that they have vowed to prevent at any cost, including further pre-emptive strikes. This cycle of "threat and response" creates a feedback loop: as Iran moves closer to a bomb to deter Israeli attacks, Israel is incentivized to attack before that deterrent becomes operational, making a second major conflict in early 2026 a distinct and harrowing possibility.